Let’s Play "RisiKo!": Where Do We Stand?

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These days, the image of the three main BRICS leaders—Russia, India, and China—has drawn much attention. They have strengthened their ties of friendship, declaring the birth of a New World Order. Taken together, these three countries alone account for 50% of the world’s population. Added to them are Iran and North Korea, giving rise to a newly conceived political bloc that has shifted almost entirely eastward. As we anticipated long ago in Shall We Play “RisiKo!”? (https://astralisblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/giochiamo-risiko.html), the world was heading toward a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China, with Russia—despite its ambitions—ultimately reduced to playing the role of China’s vassal.

But should we resign ourselves to this new reality without alternatives? Not necessarily. Much depends on the foresight and determination of the other players, who for now seem to be acting in a scattered fashion. Europe, as we predicted when Uranus began transiting through Taurus—the sign that represents it (A Look into the Future, https://astralisblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/uno-sguardo-al-futuro.html)—is struggling to acknowledge that its framework has already changed. The sooner it accepts this, the better for everyone. The United States, for its part, with Uranus now transiting Gemini (Uranus in Gemini, https://astralisblog.blogspot.com/2025/06/urano-in-gemelli.html), is faring no better. If Europe is now emerging from its most critical period, the U.S. is right in the middle of its own. Meanwhile, China is riding the wave of its Uranian transformation, aided by Pluto, Neptune, and soon Saturn. Russia, by contrast, is beginning to lose momentum and will soon have to reckon with a transformation very different from the one it had envisioned when it launched its war against Ukraine. For now, it can still rely on economic support from its new partners, but such aid will not come without cost.

On top of all this comes the Middle Eastern issue, quite clearly orchestrated by Russia to keep its age-old enemy—the U.S.—distracted. This has forced Washington to divert resources away from Ukraine and redirect them to the Mediterranean. There is even the risk of stretching men and resources further by trying to open a new front in South America, particularly in Venezuela.

So much for the current picture. But what lies ahead? In Risk, the early stage of the game is about forging new alliances to strengthen one’s position. Yet in this case, the most active player—the U.S.—seems instead to be attempting, with little success, to infiltrate the BRICS coalition, rather than building a credible alternative. Donald Trump’s unfavorable astrological outlook does not bode well either, even if the U.S. President’s words seem aimed at downplaying the importance of this new coalition. What is certain is that over the next seven years, the U.S. will face significant challenges both at home and abroad. While Neptune and Saturn may lend some support, current policy seems focused more on media spin than on laying the foundations of a genuine alternative order. Such an order, in fact, could bring together the entire American continent—excluding perhaps Venezuela and Brazil—if only Washington would stop seeing its neighbors as enemies and start viewing them as potential allies. Yet the typically American tendency to generate “new Wild Wests” rather than rely on diplomacy will make this option difficult.

And what about Europe? A new axis could form, linking the U.K. (despite Brexit), France, and Germany. But of the three, only Germany seems likely to recover quickly from the current crisis. The other two—especially France—will struggle for years to come. Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to target Italy, which is in fact gaining greater credibility on the world stage and achieving more economic stability, have consistently fallen flat.

And Italy? While the country’s future may not look brighter than the U.K.’s, its real challenge could come from the current Prime Minister, who will have to navigate storms of many kinds. In any case, Italy alone cannot guarantee leadership in such a varied and competitive global landscape. Europe’s individualism is preventing it from breaking free of its impasse, though Italy—if farsighted enough—might help redirect attention toward North Africa, where some room for maneuver still exists, despite Russia’s growing presence there. Another interesting partnership could be forged with Japan, though here too the weight of 20th-century history would need to be set aside—something not easy for everyone.

In conclusion, we should expect major setbacks for Russia—especially next year—a growing dominance of China on the world stage, and mounting confusion in the international relations of both the U.S. and Europe, even if Europe may soon begin to show encouraging signs of recovery.